We finally made it. After 17 weeks, the NFL playoffs have arrived. Out of the twelve teams in the playoffs this season, there are seven (Texans, Ravens, Chargers, Colts, Bears, Cowboys, and Seahawks) that didn’t make it the year before. The top six highest paid quarterbacks (Rodgers, Ryan, Cousins, Garoppolo, Stafford, and Carr) will not be playing in the postseason this year. There is really no predictability when it comes to which teams make the NFL playoffs other than the Patriots who win the AFC East every year. This is the exact opposite of the NBA where it feels like the same teams make the playoffs and compete for a championship every season. That NFL’s playoff unpredictability compared to the NBA can be attributed to so many reasons such as less playoff spots, more roster turnover, and the physical nature of the sport making it challenging to be able to consistently contend for a title over a long period of time. Conventional wisdom would say the unpredictability would bring excitement to the playoffs, but often the Wild-Card round doesn’t have a slate of four interesting games. However, this year things are different.
This is one of the first Wild-Card weekends in a while where every game is interesting. The past couple years there’s always been that one boring first-round playoff game that usually features the Bengals, the Texans (before they had a real quarterback), or the Chiefs with Alex Smith. I think the lowest point was two years ago when Brock Osweiler went up against Connor Cook in a playoff game. Maybe it was the year before that when Ryan Lindley started in a playoff game for the Arizona Cardinals against the 8-7-1 Carolina Panthers. It could even be last year when Tyrod Taylor faced off against Blake Bortles in a clash of the titans. The point is it’s refreshing to have a first round of the playoffs where all of the teams have at least a somewhat competent quarterback and a legitimate chance to win. Three out of four of the lines are under three points showing how close some of these teams are to one another. I’m going to try to do the impossible this postseason and go 11-0 with picking these playoff games. Full disclosure, I did go 0-4 in the Wild-Card round last year when I was tweeting out picks. At least there is nowhere to go but up from here. To the picks we go. Home teams are in bold.
Colts +1.5 over Texans
I’ve been skeptical on the Houston Texans all season long. Their 9-game win streak was pretty unimpressive. The only playoff teams they beat during the streak were early in the season. Those wins were against the Colts in week 4 because Frank Reich (he’s come a long way since then) stupidly went for it on fourth down in overtime and the Cowboys (before they traded for Cooper) in week 5 due to a classic Jason Garrett performance. They lost to both the playoff teams (Colts and Eagles) that they played in December. Houston’s running backs suck, and I’m not crazy about their offense outside of Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins may be the best wide receiver in the league, but the Colts have more depth when it comes to their offensive weapons with Hilton, Ebron, and Mack. Watson (4165 passing yards and 26 passing touchdowns) has had a great comeback year from injury, but Andrew Luck (4593 passing yards and 39 passing touchdowns) has had an even better one. The Colts have a better overall offense. This was the season where Indianapolis was finally able to right the ship from the disaster which was Ryan Grigson (first-rounder for Trent Richardson anyone?) and have Andrew Luck return to looking like the franchise quarterback he was promised to be. They have built a scary offensive line headlined by Quenton Nelson to protect Luck that I feel will be able to hold Watt and Clowney. I also trust Frank Reich more in a playoff game than I do Bill O’Brien. I wish I was getting more points for taking the road team here. Regardless, the Colts are the pick.
Seahawks +2 over Cowboys
The two most important positions in football are quarterback and head coach. Dallas has the worst head coach in the playoffs and one of the bottom three quarterbacks of the twelve remaining. Amari Cooper, who’s made Jon Gruden look even dumber than he did after the Khalil Mack trade, has cooled off a bit since his monstrous week 14 performance against the Eagles. Also, the Dallas defense isn’t as good as that win against New Orleans made them out to be as they’ve gone on to give up at least 20 points in each of their four games since that victory. The way the Cowboys win this game is by playing good defense, having Dak be a game manger, and running the ball with Zeke Elliott to control the time of possession. That last step is easier said than done especially with Bobby Wagner on the opposing defense. Russell Wilson has a 5-0 record in the first game he plays in the playoffs. It feels like you never know for sure which Seattle team is going to show up. Is it going to be the Seattle team that lost to the horrendous 49ers in week 15 or the Seattle team that can run the ball effectively and be a threat in the passing game with Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett? I’m going to trust Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll (both of whom are starting to build Hall of Fame cases for themselves) in the playoffs. In retrospect, I could’ve just saved so much time and word space by simply saying “I am not picking Jason Garrett”. Whatever. Next.
Ravens -2.5 over Chargers
It’s amazing how dramatic of an impact having a competent quarterback can have for a team. We saw it last year when San Francisco didn’t lose once Jimmy Garoppolo became the starter. Lamar Jackson is 6-1 since he replaced Joe Flacco (Super Bowl 47 was before the series finale of the Office) as the Ravens starting quarterback. The Ravens have one of the better home-field advantages, the number one total defense in the NFL, a good head coach, and a unique run-focused offense that opposing defenses have yet to figure out. The reason for taking the Chargers is that they’re the more talented team with difference makers on both sides of the ball (Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram, Casey Hayward, and Derwin James) and have a quarterback in Philip Rivers who is having one of the best seasons of his career. However, the Chargers history of choking and missing kicks in big spots along with having Anthony Lynn (I don’t know what he actually does well) as their head coach doesn’t really help their cause. Plus, the Ravens already beat them by double digits only two short weeks ago. I’m laying the points and taking Baltimore (I just hope I don’t end up regretting giving up points to take the less talented team).
Eagles +6.5 over Bears
I’m not doing it. No matter what, I’m not going to take Mitchell Trubisky as a favorite in the playoffs. I don’t care how good that Bears defense is, what schemes Matt Nagy can draw to make the game easier for Trubisky, or how loud Soldier Field will be for its first playoff game in eight years. I just can’t in good conscience pick the rich man’s Blake Bortles as a favorite in the playoffs. On the other side, there’s something special going on with Nick Foles that can’t be ignored. After that overtime loss to Dallas in week 14, it looked like Philadelphia’s season was over. Then Wentz had some mysterious back injury (Does anyone even know what happened? Why is he not on the IR?), and Foles goes 3-0 as the starter. The Foles magic has come back and completely rejuvenated this team. Alshon Jeffery looks like a completely different receiver than he did when Wentz was the quarterback. The Eagles do have a decimated secondary, but Trubisky isn’t the type of quarterback who is going to pick it apart. I can easily see the scenario where Philadelphia wins this game and then everyone rips the Bears for choosing to play Philly as opposed to that crappy Minnesota team they dominated in week 17. Even if that doesn’t happen I still like the Eagles to cover.