I did okay with my picks last week, but this week we’re going to try to do better than 2-1-1. The divisional round is the best round of the NFL playoffs from an entertainment standpoint. There are four games, and the quality of teams is better from the previous weekend as some of the crappier teams are weeded out and replaced with the top two seeds from each conference. The divisional round is neck and neck with the first two days of March Madness as the best consecutive two day period in sports. This year’s divisional weekend has interesting matchups and the perfect blend of quarterbacks from the old guard (Brady, Brees, and River), the new guard (Prescott, Goff, and Mahomes), the middle guard (Andrew Luck), and a backup quarterback who is apparently ready to go on a magic run to win a Super Bowl every January (Foles).
One trend to pay attention to when making picks for this divisional weekend and the remainder of the playoffs is the recent dominance of the number one seeds. Since 2013, every one seed from both the AFC and NFC has made the Super Bowl except the 2016 Dallas Cowboys. Home field advantage has never been more important. It’s also worth mentioning that very rarely do all four bye teams advance to the conference championships. It happened during the 2015 season, but the last time it happened before that was 2004. It’s not a common occurrence. Keep these little facts in your mind when making picks. Speaking of which it’s time I get to mine. Home teams are in bold.
Chiefs -5 over Colts
Literally, everyone loves the Colts right now after their win last week. They’re the classic round one overreaction team. I get that the offense looked good and embarrassed the hell out of Houston. Their fantastic offensive line gives Andrew Luck so much needed time. TY Hilton is incredibly scary to go up against, and Frank Reich made every right play call against Houston. However, there’s a couple things to consider here. First, I HATE picking a dome team in the cold weather. Next, as good as their offense looked, let’s not forget the offense they’re going up against is just flat out better. Pat Mahomes (the likely MVP) is the second quarterback in NFL history to throw for over 5000 yards and 50 touchdowns in the same season. Those numbers are so incredible that they put my unease of picking an inexperienced quarterback in his first postseason start at rest. The two biggest factors for picking against the Chiefs is that they’re on their third-string running back and have Andy Reid as their head coach. By now, most people who follow football know about Andy Reid’s classic playoff chokes (11- 13 playoff record & 1-4 playoff record with the Chiefs) and his horrible clock management ability. Andy has been fairly criticized for his postseason shortcomings, but this is the best team he’s had in Kansas City. His quarterback is not Alex Smith anymore. This isn’t the 2013 team playing against the Colts that keeps being mentioned even though these rosters are completely different now. I think Andy can avoid screwing up at least one game this postseason. Also, the recent success by one seeds is a positive sign for the Chiefs. I’m not overreacting to last week, so I’m going with Kansas City.
Rams -7 over Cowboys
Dallas can thank Brian Schottenheimer’s inept offensive play calling for their win against the Seahawks last week. They’re not going to be as fortunate this week with Sean McVay in charge of the offense for the Los Angeles Rams. There’s a lot of negativity surrounding the Rams right now regarding how their offense looked to end the season with no Cooper Kupp ( if you didn’t watch football, you’d assume he’s MVP of the league the way they talk about his absence), Goff not playing well, and Gurley banged up. The Rams have a defense that was overhyped to start the season as opposed to the Cowboys whose defense has really come on as of late. There’s also the possibility of there being more Cowboys fans than Rams fans at this game. All of that being said, I still like the Rams. Todd Gurley is apparently good to go and has no fantasy owners to screw over this week. I believe Aaron Donald will be able to get to Prescott in this game. Finally, the coaching advantage tips heavily in the Rams favor. Could you actually imagine Jason Garrett clapping on the sidelines in the NFC Championship Game while Sean McVay is watching from his couch? I can’t. I also have a hard time seeing McVay, who has been so effective as a coach that he’s sent many NFL teams into absurd searches to find “the next Sean McVay” in an attempt to copy the Rams, losing the first two playoff games he’s coached in. The Rams went 13-3 and they’re being treated with less respect than Fredo Corleone. I don’t need the seven points. I’m taking the Rams.
Chargers +4 over Patriots
No matter what I can’t be called a biased fan now. The Chargers have more talent on their roster than the Patriots do. The Patriots own the Chargers, and Philip Rivers has an 0-7 record against Tom Brady. The Patriots have also owned the Steelers during the Brady-Belichick era and lost to them this season, so I’m throwing past dominance out of the equation when it comes to the Pats. This is not your father’s Chargers who are known for missing kicks as evident in last week’s game against the Ravens. I’m generally not a believer in extra motivation and all this crap on social media regarding how players need more reasons to be inspired to go win as if playing in the postseason doesn’t already get you hyped. However, for Rivers this could be his last real shot at a Super Bowl, and he’s definitely wanted this rematch with the Patriots since the AFC Championship game where he played with a torn ACL. The Chargers have two monster pass rushers that’ll cause problems for New England all day long. The Patriots are 8-0 at home this season, but the Chargers are 8-0 outside of the city of Los Angeles (8-1 on the road this season if you really want to count the Rams as a road game). Los Angeles plays better on the road as opposed to playing in that 27,000 person soccer stadium. Gronk is on his last leg, Edelman isn’t the same, no Gordon hurts, and I’m uncertain if Chris Hogan remembers how to play football. New England’s secondary is good though. If they can get a couple picks off Rivers, then we (I typed in we out of habit when discussing the Patriots and I’m just going to leave it in here) might have a chance. The Patriots streak of seven straight AFC Championship Game appearances is in real jeopardy this Sunday. A loss on Sunday and sports talk shows can talk about if this is the end of the Brady-Belichick era for the 6,538,678th time along with other hardly discussed topics like “is LeBron better than Jordan?” and “Tiger Woods being back”. The Chargers have a real shot to win. Even if they don’t, I like them to cover. I just hope I’m wrong.
Saints -8 over Eagles.
It’s almost impossible (unless it’s Tampa in week one but who remembers that) for New Orleans to lose in their dome. If we ignore week 17 where Drew Brees didn’t play, the Saints are averaging 37 points at home this season. The Eagles offense didn’t look sharp last week when they barely scored 16 points. Now, the Bears do have the best defense in the NFL, so I’m going to assume the Eagles offense will put up more than 16 points against the Saints. Still, I can’t see them putting up more points (which is how you win football games if you didn’t know) than the Saints at home. When they played earlier this season, the Saints destroyed the Eagles (with Wentz not Foles to be fair) and won 48-7. The Foles magic is going to run out at some point. It would’ve ran out last week if Chicago could’ve made a 43-yard FG. He’s not going to win two Super Bowls. That would go against everything we know about football. I said last week that Mitchell Turbisky wasn’t going to be the quarterback to pick apart the Eagles decimated secondary (though he kind of came on towards the end of that Bears game), but Brees is the type of quarterback who will take advantage of it from start to finish. The recent success of number one seeds along with New Orleans being undefeated at home in the playoffs with Drew Brees and Sean Payton make this an easy pick.
Last Week Record: 2-1-1