One of the best parts about sports is the unpredictability. It’s that ‘nothing is certain’ aspect that turns so called experts into morons and people who thought they would be rich into degenerates. I remember when I watched the NBA playoffs in middle school, I would check out the pregame shows before the opening tip because I wanted to hear how all the “experts” thought the game was going to go (it did not take long after that for me to realize Mark Jackson was not the person I should be listening to for that insight).
The reason I bring all this up is because in sports and basketball (which is a sport so it checks out) the unexpected can happen. A star player could choke or a devastating injury can take place or a global pandemic could occur that suspends the season for four and a half months only to restart at Disney World in a bubble where no fans will be at the games (that would be my #1 draft pick of the most unexpected things by the way). Those are all negative things, and I want to focus on the positive. My favorite unexpected thing that happens in the NBA is when a player that no one expected to has a huge playoff performance seemingly out of nowhere that swings the game for his team. Here is my list of the top out of nowhere NBA playoff performances. I’m only using performances from round 2 and after because round 1 should just be simmed in most cases honestly.
Kawhi Leonard Games 3, 4, and 5 of the 2014 NBA Finals vs the Miami Heat
It’s very likely at this point of reading this piece you’re thinking to yourself that I am a complete dumbass for saying Kawhi Leonard having a big playoff performance is something that is surprising. After all, this is the same Kawhi Leonard who is a two time Finals MVP (with two different teams), two time defensive player of the year, and one of the top two players headed to the Orlando bubble along with LeBron James as the NBA season is set to resume. However, at the time of the 2014 NBA Finals, Kawhi Leonard was none of those things. Not even close really. Here’s a list of Kawhi Leonard’s career accomplishments at the start of the 2014 NBA Finals: 2012 All-Rookie first team, 2014 All-Defensive second team, and wait that’s it. His 2014 regular season (which was his third season in the league) averages were 12.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 2 APG, and 1.7 SPG. He wasn’t even someone who we looked at and said, “You know Kawhi Leonard is going to be a perennial top 5 player in the league in a couple years.” He was just a good young player on the team with the best infrastructure in the league. He wasn’t anybody back then, and that’s important to remember.
After the first two games of the 2014 Finals, the series was tied 1-1 and headed back to Miami where something unthinkable occurred. Kawhi, who only put up a lackluster 9 points in each of the first two games of the series, became San Antonio’s best player. This is the same San Antonio team that had three future Hall of Famers on the roster in Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili. Kawhi led the Spurs in scoring to victories in the next three games and won the 2014 Finals MVP. He averaged 23.7 points and shot 68.5% in those final three games. It’s important to note that he did this while going up against and having to defend LEBRON FREAKING JAMES. Some people on first glance might think these type of playoff performances were expected from Kawhi given how good he is now and how well ran the Spurs were (yes, I used the past tense on purpose but that’s another article for another time) in the 21st century. However, nothing Kawhi did before this point indicated he would outplay LeBron in three consecutive games in a playoff series to win it. Kawhi didn’t even make the All-Star team in 2015 following this championship, so it’s not like this series was his A Star is Born moment breakthrough. His rise to the top was slow, and that’s why this performance in this moment of time was surprising.
Rajon Rondo Game 7 2012 Eastern Conference Semi-Finals vs the Philadelphia 76ers
In 2012, people considered the big three Celtics (Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett) old and past their title window. However, Rajon Rondo was an All-NBA player that season and was capable of leading this team to the Finals considering he literally did so in 2010 as their best player. That leads to the question to why this game is being written in a piece of unexpected playoff performances. If someone’s supposed to be the best player on a title contender, it shouldn’t be a shock that they have a good game. In this case it’s how Rondo came up big that provided shock value.
Most basketball fans would probably agree that the biggest weakness in Rondo’s game is his outside shooting (some would say it’s his antagonistic relationship with coaches or his lack of effort outside of national TV games but let’s just stick to an actual basketball skill for the sake of this blurb). His career shooting percentages are 41.8% FG, 32.8% 3FG, and 65.9% FT. Not exactly Kevin Malone over here. If you’re rooting for a team Rondo’s on, watching him shoot a three in a big spot creates a nervous feeling the same way meeting your prom date’s father does. Rondo’s shocking performance in this game all started with Paul Pierce (Boston’s most reliable perimeter scoring option) fouling out with a little more than 4 minutes left in the fourth quarter with the Celtics only up by 3. From then on it was the Rondo show. He scored the next 7 points for the Celtics to put them up by 10. This included a three and a long two that was originally called a three. After that stretch, he ended up making 4 free throws which helped seal the game and the series for Boston. This is likely one of the unlikeliest things anyone watching that game thought would happen after Pierce fouled out.
I still can’t get over how crazy it was that Rondo scored 11 points in the final 4 minutes and 16 seconds of a game 7 by relying on his shooting after Pierce fouled out. That’s like if Captain America and Iron Man were fighting some villain who killed Captain America and destroyed Iron Man’s suit only to lose to Iron Man in hand to hand combat. This was out of left left field, and the fact that it’s not even noted in Uncut Gems really devalues the movie.
Jeff Green Game 7 2018 Eastern Conference Finals vs the Boston Celtics
Jeff Green isn’t your typical top five pick that didn’t live up to expectations. His size and (supposed) skill made him the type of versatile wing everyone wants on their team in today’s league. His career was filled with moments of false hope where he looked like he finally put it all together only to follow it up with a stretch of single digit scoring games.
He was thought of so highly that in 2011 the Celtics broke up their starting 5 who never lost a playoff series together in a trade that sent Kendrick Perkins to Oklahoma City for Jeff Green. At the time it seemed like OKC was only willing to move on from him because they had too many perimeter players between Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden. He ended up being a disappointment for the Celtics. I’m sure Green’s heart surgery played a role in his shortcomings as a player, but that doesn’t change the fact that he was a disappointment to every team (it’s a long list too) he went.
However, he did have his one moment in the sun. In the 2018 season, LeBron was basically reliving his pre-Miami days as the only superstar on his team. Kyrie Irving was traded in the prior offseason, and Kevin Love, who was out for the game I’m about to discuss due to a concussion, never lived up to the expectations that were set for him in Cleveland. The Cavs were up against the Boston Celtics in game 7 of the 2018 Eastern Conference Finals at TD Garden which has been a place where LeBron has both choked and dominated. The Celtics were also an undermanned team with Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward out for the season due to injuries. Any lift either team got from a role player would prove to be huge in determining this game’s outcome. Jeff Green was the one who gave that lift with 19 points and 8 rebounds. Green’s performance combined with LeBron’s 35 point, 15 rebound, and 9 assist effort (wow…) was enough to get the Cavs past the Celtics. That’s just classic Jeff Green. At that point everyone gave up on him, so naturally, he has a big time performance against the very team who believed in him the most at one point. He then followed it up by four single digit scoring games in the 2018 NBA Finals as the Cavs got swept by the Warriors. Classic Jeff Green.
Mike Miller Game 5 2012 NBA Finals vs the Oklahoma City Thunder & Shane Battier Game 7 2013 NBA Finals vs the San Antonio Spurs
Both of these guys were brought to Miami to do one (two in Battier’s case I guess) thing as members of the big three’s supporting cast. Shoot. Shoot. Shoot (and contribute with perimeter defense if you’re Battier). Each of them had a good shooting performance in a Finals closeout game for Miami during their back to back titles. Mike Miller made 7/8 threes and had 23 points in Miami’s close out game 5 victory against OKC in 2012, and Shane Battier made 6/8 threes for 18 points in Miami’s close out game 7 victory against San Antonio in 2013.
What’s so shocking about these performances isn’t that guys who were brought in to shoot made shots. It’s that before their big performances in their respective games they had both somewhat fallen out of Miami’s rotation. What makes this even crazier is when each of them came off the bench to have their big performance, the other one was starting for the Heat and supposed to be the one who would’ve had that performance (Battier started in game 5 against OKC and Miller started in game 7 against San Antonio). The fact that this happened in back to back years makes it even more insane. This is the type of thing you’d see in a sports movie where a player loses his or her spot, but he or she comes up big in the championship game. The difference is in this case it happened twice with two different players who both came up big in the year the one expected to have this performance was starting. Unreal stuff.
Josh Smith Game 6 2015 Western Conference Semi-Finals vs the Los Angeles Clippers
Earlier in this piece, I wrote about Rondo who surprised in the playoffs by winning a game with his shooting which is not his strong suit. I also wrote about Jeff Green who, despite never being able to put it all together given his physical tools, had a big performance after being written off. If you combine both of those situations, you basically get Josh Smith. Smith was a tweener forward who had a unique blend of size and athleticism, yet for some reason he was seemingly in love with taking threes. Smith was a career 28.5% three-point shooter, and if you ask Hawks or Pistons fans, they’ll be the first to tell you that number never discouraged him from taking them.
The Detroit Pistons waived Josh Smith in December of 2014 which was only a third of the way through the second year of his four year contract with the team due to him (how do I say this nicely) sucking. According to ESPN, Smith was on his way to becoming the first player to shoot below 40% on FGs and below 50% on FTs while taking 12 shots a game (this is what the advanced analytics bros would call inefficient). The Pistons cut him with more than $30 million in guaranteed money left on his deal (which they were still paying out until 2020!!!!) since they couldn’t find a trade partner to take his contract. A couple days after being cut, Smith signed with the Houston Rockets on a one year deal worth $2 million through the bi-annual exception. If this isn’t the ultimate sign of being given up on in the NBA, I’m not sure what is.
Now, let’s go to the actual game. The Rockets entered the fourth quarter down 13 points to the Clippers who were 12 minutes away from making the Western Conference Finals (their potential first in franchise history). The Clippers at one point had a 3-1 lead in the series and seemed well on their way, but the impossible happened. Josh Smith happened. The man they all gave up on happened. The man that makes fans of teams he’s on moan in sync when he shoots a three happened. Josh Smith scored 14 points on 4-5 shooting which consisted of a 3-4 effort from beyond the three point line. He literally saved Houston’s season after being written off by the league while doing the very thing (taking threes) that fans would consistently get upset at him for doing.
What makes this game even crazier is that the fourth quarter was essentially a two man show between Josh Smith and Cory Brewer (15 points in the quarter which honestly is overlooked given Smith’s out of nowhere performance). Dwight Howard, who at that point was still considered a star big man as opposed to a locker room problem and one of the quickest cases of becoming washed in NBA history, did not have a single field goal in the fourth quarter. James Harden, who finished second in MVP voting that season behind Steph Curry, didn’t even record a second of game time in the fourth quarter. Thanks to Smith and Brewer the Rockets won game 6, and went on to win game 7 to advance to the Western Conference Finals. Sure, Josh Smith never had another moment like that in his career, but for that one time he was able to shine doing it his way. His beautiful; likely irreplicable; inefficient way. You just got to tip your hat to the man.