Who should win the NBA Most Valuable Player award is one of the most fun debates NBA fans have during the course of a season.Fans have arguments about whether team success or individual statistics should carry more weight for winning MVP. There’s also the secondary debate on what the MVP award actually means. For example, some believe the MVP should be the best player on the best team while others feel the MVP should be the player that is singlehandedly saving his team from being in the draft lottery. One trend to notice with the MVP award, is in the 21st century (with one exception) the MVP winner has always been a player from a team who has a top four record in the league that season. The lone exception to this is the 2017 season when Russell Westbrook won it because he averaged a triple double only for people to realize that the triple double is an overrated stat and it should not matter for winning MVP when he averaged it again the following year. Having a nice story line also seems to matter for the voters when they’re selecting the MVP. I’m going to go through the top 10 most likely MVP candidates (not in any order) and try to select my MVP for the 2019 season. I hope that I get this right and redeem myself from that putrid NFL picks column I did that may or may not be deleted by the time you’re reading this. Let’s get started.
Joel Embiid
This will be Embiid’s 5th season since the 76ers drafted him with the third overall pick in 2014. He did miss the entire first two seasons due to injury. Last year Embiid averaged 22.9 PPG, 11 TRB, and 1.8 BPG. For Embiid to win MVP he would probably have to average about 25 points along with 12 rebounds and 2 blocks while at the same time leading Philadelphia to one of the top four records in the league. I have my doubts on the likelihood of that happening. First off, Embiid has a history of being sidelined with injuries and not playing back to backs. Boston and Toronto got better this offseason while Philadelphia stood pat making it more challenging for them to get one of those top four records. Finally, Ben Simmons could easily supplant Embiid as the top player on the 6ers this season. Some might argue he already has. Those three reasons all scare me enough and dissuade me from picking Embiid to win the MVP.
Kyrie Irving
His second year in Boston should be entertaining after the last one was cut short due to injury. The Celtics are loaded with talent after not losing anyone major this offseason while adding back Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward to a team that was a game away from making the NBA finals last season. Boston should easily have one of the top four records in the league with their talent and Brad Stevens as the head coach. They rank second only behind the two time defending champion Golden State Warriors when it comes to over/under win totals. The team success will be there for Kyrie Irving, but with Tatum expected to take a bigger role and Hayward returning it’s pretty hard to imagine Kyrie having a dominant statistical season after averaging 24.4 points a game the year before.
Kevin Durant & Steph Curry
I grouped Durant and Curry together because they’re on the same team. Also, I feel like I insulted anyone who is reading my piece about the NBA by actually typing a sentence explaining that Curry and Durant are teammates. Anyways, I have an extremely difficult time seeing either of these two winning the MVP. The regular season is a chore for the Warriors. They just want to get through it and get to the playoffs in April when they know they can beat anybody. Due to that mentality, it’s hard to imagine either Durant or Curry, both 30 years old, going out and trying to have a dominant regular season to win the MVP. Also, they’d probably split votes when it comes to MVP voting on the count of no one can definitively say which one is the best player on the Warriors.
James Harden
It would be quite the challenge for the reigning MVP to win the award a second straight year. Harden finally broke through and won the award last year after finishing second to Curry in 2015 (Curry deserved it over him) and finishing second to Westbrook in 2017 (Westbrook didn’t deserve it over him). I have no doubt that Harden’s individual numbers will be close to if not just as good to what they were last year. The Rockets got worse this offseason. They lost Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute while adding a washed up Carmelo Anthony. Chris Paul is a 33-year-old 6’0” injury prone point guard who could fall off the mountain any season now. It’s not going to be Harden’s fault that this team can’t match its 2018 win total of 65 games, but when he is being considered for MVP, fairly or unfairly the Rockets regression from the 2018 season will be held against him.
Russell Westbrook
I mentioned earlier that Russell Westbrook only won his MVP because he averaged a triple double. He averaged one the next year and nobody cared. For Westbrook to win the league MVP award again his team is going to have to have a decent amount of success. They’ll have to win around 56 games and have a top four record in the league. That’s just not going to happen plain and simple. I believe the Thunder got better this offseason with addition by subtraction from trading Carmelo Anthony. Dennis Schroder isn’t a bad pick up as a backup point guard. Let’s be real with ourselves though, Westbrook is who he is at this point. He’s an electrifying ball dominant guard who might be the single most terrifying force leading a fast break for opposing teams. His style of ball dominant hero ball doesn’t translate to enough wins for a top four record in the league. Without that, Westbrook isn’t going to win another MVP. Also, I didn’t even mention the fact that he had knee surgery in September which might not be good for his chances of winning MVP if he continues to have knee issues.
Anthony Davis
AD was on an unstoppable Thanos like level last season. He averaged 28.1 PPG, 11.1 TRB, and 2.6 BPG during the 2018 season. He finished third in MVP voting last season behind James Harden and LeBron James. AND HE IS ONLY 25 YEARS OLD!!!!!!!!!!!! With all of that being said, he isn’t going to win league MVP this year. His team was the six seed last year, and they’re only going to get worse after losing Rajon Rondo. Rondo had a huge impact on this team, and he developed a real connection with Davis during the course of last season. New Orleans isn’t going to get a top four record which is needed for Anthony Davis to win league MVP. They probably won’t even be a top four seed in their own conference. Fortunately, for Davis, he’ll have an actual chance at winning the award next season after he inevitably demands a trade in the offseason.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
The Greek Freak is the first player I’ve listed who I actually think has a shot to win the MVP. He is entering his sixth season, and he is only 23 years old. He’s coming off a 2018 campagin where he averaged 26.9 points, 10 rebounds, and 4.8 assists. He did all of that without a consistent jump shot. Giannis is on an upward trajectory. The real advantage for him is the Bucks finally got a real coach. Mike Budenholzer unexpectedly won 60 games with an Atlanta team in 2015 that had no real superstar. Now that he is paired with the possible best player in the eastern conference, it’ll be interesting to see what they can accomplish together. It’s not hard to see Milwaukee under Budenholzer’s leadership take a top two or three seed in the eastern conference while Giannis has a dominant statistical season that could lead to his first MVP.
LeBron James
What else can you say about the best player in the world? He’s won four league MVPs and three NBA championships, but if he wants to match Michael Jordan’s MVP award total he needs to win one more. He might very well win another in his first season with the Los Angeles Lakers. The storyline for LeBron to win the MVP this season would be something along the lines of LeBron serving as a mentor to the young players like Lonzo and Ingram while he has another classic statistical season as the Lakers win around 55 games and are considered ahead of schedule. I can easily see this happening. He has a better supporting cast with the Lakers than he had in Cleveland last season. The case for LeBron winning the MVP this season is similar to the case for Giannis. It involves both of them leading their teams to win totals in the mid-fifties while also getting a top two or three seed in their conference. The only team in the west that will for sure be in front of the Lakers is Golden State while Toronto and Boston will almost certainly be ahead of Milwaukee with the improvements they’ve made from last season. With that in mind in addition to me having more faith in LeBron than Giannis given his decade plus track record, I would say LeBron is more likely to win the award than Giannis. However, neither of them would be my pick to actually win the award.
Kawhi Leonard
My pick for the MVP is Kawhi Leonard. Toronto won 59 games last year and they upgraded from DeMar Derozan to Kawhi Leonard. With all due respect, to Giannis, Kawhi’s status as a dominant two-way player makes him the best player in the east in my eyes. His abilities on defense are something voters will take into account. Now this team probably won’t match or exceed their win total from last year due to a couple of reasons. They have a new head coach in Nick Nurse who could struggle at first in his first year. It will take some time for the team to develop chemistry after replacing DeRozan who had been in Toronto for nine seasons and appeared to have had a real bond with Lowry. Kawhi’s quad injury is also a concern, but he’s been playing in the preseason and there hasn’t been any rumblings about the injury affecting him currently. Overall, the Raptors are more talented than they were last year, and they have the organizational structure that should ensure them a win total close to what they achieved last season as well as a top seed in the east. As for Kawhi, he missed majority of last season and many have forgotten how good he is. Kawhi finished second in MVP voting in 2016 and third in 2017. He’s won defensive player of the year twice and he won a finals MVP as he lead his Spurs team to a title in 2014 which was his third season in the league. He’s the number one draft pick for player you want to guard LeBron James or Kevin Durant. His team is going to win games, get a top two seed, and he’s going to kick ass for them. Kawhi Leonard is my pick for 2019 MVP. I just wonder if Drake is going to be able to convince him to resign after this year.
Thanks for reading.