This is my first ever NFL picks column. I am picking with the spreads and not doing the Thursday night games because well it’s Friday and that game already happened. I don’t want to spend too much time on an introduction. I would rather get right to the picks. Home teams are in bold.
Ravens (-3) over Browns
Oh Hue. The Browns could be 4-0 right now if they gained an extra inch and made a couple of field goals. The Browns have talent on both sides of the ball. However, it seems that they’re headed towards being one of those teams to lose a bunch of close games and have a worse record than they should have given their talent kind of like the Chargers. Maybe after this season they will replace their coach who has gone 2-33-1 in his first 36 games. Baltimore looks like they could be a playoff team this year especially with the offensive line blocking for Flacco the way it did last Sunday night in Pittsburgh. Joe Flacco on the road is scary, but if they are going to be a playoff team this is a game they need to win.
Chiefs (-3) over Jaguars
Number one offense vs number one defense. Watching Mahomes on Sunday can rival Game of Thrones when it comes to appointment viewing. He is electric. Between the cannon arm, scrambling to throw instead of to run, the left-handed pass, and the 2nd and 30 what else is there to say? Maybe KC doesn’t dominate the Jags defense like they have with all their other opponents, but Showtime Mahomes (he needs a much better nickname) and that offense should be able to put enough points on the board. Besides, does anyone actually have confidence in Bortles playing in Arrowhead? Yeah, I don’t think so.
Titans (-5) over Bills
Yikes, I just picked my third favorite in a row. I’m not letting one game against the Vikings throw me off the scent when it comes to the Bills. This is still the same team that literally had a player retire at halftime in week 2. The Bills have a putrid negative 77-point differential in the three games they’ve lost. Tennessee on the other hand could easily be undefeated right now if it wasn’t for that weird delayed Miami game in week one. Tennessee won a playoff game last year, and now they’ve upgraded at head coach with Mike Vrabel who doesn’t seem to be afraid to bust out trick plays and go for it on fourth down. The Titans could be better than we think. Or they could just be a team with an average quarterback in Mariota and only one receiver you would have on your fantasy team in Corey Davis. Time will tell but I definitely like them over Buffalo.
Giants (+6) over Panthers
The Giants offense stinks. They have the highest paid receiver in the NFL and used the second overall pick in the 2018 draft on a super talented running back, but they have only gotten to 20 points once in their first four games. It’s not Eli Manning’s fault that the offense stinks though. No matter how bad the Giants offense is and will continue to be it will never be Eli’s fault!!!!! I’m glad I got that out of my system. With that said, I think the Panthers offense stinks too. Cam’s only real weapons are McCaffrey and Funchess two players who I wouldn’t consider above average at their positions. They put up 24 on Atlanta and 31 on Cincinnati, but we saw last week when those two teams played each other that they looked like Suns Mike D’Antoni was coaching their defense. Therefore, with two crappy offenses I’ll go ahead and grab the points.
Broncos (PK) over Jets
Tough times for the Jets going 0-3 since Darnold’s “dominating” 198 yard week one performance. Maybe he can dominate again this week and actually go over 200 passing yards for the second time this season. With Von Miller and Bradley Chubb coming after him, I doubt it.
Falcons +3 over Steelers
This was the toughest game to pick. The loser here is in real danger of missing the playoffs. The Falcons offense is looking like the 2016 offense at home so far this season. However, I have doubts if that offense will be the same on the road, and their defense is weaker than Steve Rogers before he was injected with the super-soldier serum. The good news for the Steelers is Le’Veon Bell is reportedly coming back. The bad news is it is not going to be this week. Ben looked washed last week against the Ravens, but I can see him putting up numbers on a bad Falcons defense similar to what he did against the Chiefs in week two. This game is such a toss-up, so I’m just going to grab the points.
Packers -1 over Lions
Matt Patricia, the defensive genius, has given up 48, 30, and 26 points in his team’s 3 losses this season. I think that Patriots game they won will be looked at as a fluke the more this season unfolds given the fact that the Patriots in recent years have put up September stinkers and Patricia was probably better prepared for them than any other team since he knows how things work behind the scenes in Foxborough. Rodgers health is still a question mark, but this spread isn’t big enough to make me pick against him. Best of luck to the defensive genius against Aaron Rodgers.
Bengals -5.5 over Dolphins
After that Patriots game, I’m going to go ahead and say the Dolphins inevitable downward spiral is going to start……………………………….NOW.
Raiders +5 over Chargers
Bad field goal kicking, majority of the fans at this game possibly being Raiders fans, and the Raiders coming off a resilient win is not good news for San Die….I mean Los Angeles . Marshawn Lynch, Jordy Nelson, and Jared Cook have all actually been decent to good for the Raiders. Besides week one against the juggernaut Rams, all the Raiders games have been one score contests. I like their chances to win this one or at least to keep it close.
49ers -4 over Cardinals
Is anyone even going to watch this game? The Cardinals are horrible. San Francisco put up enough fight against the Chargers last week to make me believe they can cover a 4 point spread against the only winless team in the NFL. That should NOT be taken as a compliment though.
Rams -7 over Seahawks
If you had to do an MVP poll right now, you could rank Goff second only behind Mahomes. Losing Earl Thomas certainly is not going to help the Seahawks defense. The Rams are starting to get 16-0 talk. That’s crazy cause you never know what could happen with injuries, but if healthy, this team looks like it can finish the season 13-3 or 14-2. The Seahawks don’t have a lot going for them. They still don’t have a running game or offensive line one can count on. The Rams always have their foot on the gas, so I am not worried about the Seattle backdoor cover.
Eagles -3 over Vikings
A rematch of the NFC championship when both teams had different starting quarterbacks. The Eagles haven’t looked impressive through four games. A lot of this can be attributed to injuries. I am just not a believer in Kirk Cousins at all. He has a 27-33-2 record when you combine the regular season with the playoffs. Washington upgraded at quarterback with Alex Smith. I still have a bad taste in my mouth from that Vikings – Bills game. The Vikings defense isn’t as impressive as it was last year. This one was close, but my distrust in Cousins swayed me to the Eagles.
Dallas +3 over Texans
I don’t like Houston as a favorite at all. Especially when they’re playing an instate team that could take away from their home crowd this Sunday. These are two poorly coached teams. Anything can happen in this one, so I’ll just play it safe and grab the points.
Saints -6.5 over Redskins
I have absolutely no idea why Washington is coming off a bye but playing on Monday night. Why are they getting an extra day? Remember when the Saints missed the playoffs for three straight years from 2014-2016 and we all thought they should move on from Brees and Payton?!?!?! Ok maybe we all didn’t think that. I for one wrongly did. You can always count on the Saints offense to put up points when they’re at home. The Brees, Kamara, Thomas trio is at least one of the top three QB/RB/WR trios in the league. Ingram coming back this week only helps them more. The Saints are going to light up the scoreboard against Washington Monday night right?!?!?!
(Thinking for a Washington defense hmmmmmm)
Nope I don’t have one. Beating the horrid Cardinals and injured Aaron Rodgers doesn’t impress me. Give me the Saints.
Thanks for reading my week 5 picks. It means the world to me that someone would actually take the time to read something I wrote about football. I really appreciate any feedback you could give on how to improve this column. Thanks again.