The Eastern Conference is a four-team race. The Eastern Conference Semifinals between these four teams is going to be bloodbath. Apologies go out to the Indiana Pacers who were in the mix until Victor Oladipo suffered a leg injury. The Nets have played well recently, and it wouldn’t be the most shocking thing in the world if they manage to pull off a first round upset against one of the four Eastern Conference contenders. However, even if they somehow manage to win one series, they don’t have the talent to make a long playoff run. The Bucks, Raptors, Celtics, and 76ers are the only teams with a legitimate chance to represent the east in the NBA finals.
With LeBron James out west, the Eastern Conference is finally wide open. I’d argue it would’ve been wide open even if he were still in it because of how terrible that Cavs team is without him, but that’s beside the point. All of the teams besides Boston made a trade deadline move to increase their chances of making the finals. One of these lucky four teams will have the privilege of being swept by the Golden State Warriors (unless there’s an injury) in the NBA Finals. Since these teams in the east will not win a championship this season in all likelihood, they need to use these playoffs as a measuring stick to see how good they are and whether they can compete with their cores once the Warriors break up. Each of these teams have an important offseason approaching them with free agency, contract extensions, and potential trades. Their playoff performances will help them decide what choices they should make. Two of these teams won’t even make the conference finals, and that shortcoming will definitely have an impact when it comes to offseason decisions. Let’s look into what is at stake for each of these teams this postseason and how their success or lack thereof can influence their offseason decisions.
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks currently have the best record in the NBA in their first season with Mike Budenholzer as their head coach. It’s also the first time in the “Giannis era” that they’ll end up with a top four seed and be favored in a playoff series. They added Nikola Mirotic to their team at the trade deadline to give themselves more depth and lineup flexibility. They’ve made the postseason with Giannis three previous times and lost in the first round in each one of those playoff appearances (Bulls won in six – 2015, Raptors won in six – 2017, Celtics won in seven – 2018). In fairness to the Bucks, they were the underdog in all three of those matchups. It may not seem like there’s much pressure on the Bucks given this will be their first postseason as an actual contender, but the offseason they will face makes this postseason crucial for Milwaukee.
The five best players on the Bucks besides Giannis (Middleton, Bledsoe, Mirotic, Brogdon, and Lopez) will all be free agents (Brogdon is restricted) this offseason. Milwaukee is going to have to make some big decisions on whether or not they want to keep this group together, and their playoff performance should play a part in that decision making process. For the sake of argument, let’s say the Bucks lose handedly in the second round. If they give out big money to re-sign this core, they risk being a mediocre team during Giannis’s prime years. If they let important pieces to their team like Middleton and Bledsoe walk, they risk losing Giannis when he becomes a free agent in the summer of 2021 (possibly earlier if he demands a trade like seemingly everyone else) because they did not commit to surrounding him with talent. There’s no indication that Giannis wants to leave Milwaukee, but things can change in a year. Just ask the Celtics.
Milwaukee will most likely overpay for Bledsoe and Middleton this offseason even if they underperform in the playoffs because you can’t risk losing those players for nothing. If the team continues to be mediocre, at least you have Bledsoe or Middleton as an asset that you could trade later. They have many decisions to make in Milwaukee this offseason regarding the team they’re going to have around the Greek Freak. How well they do in the playoffs will certainly be a contributing factor in their decision making process.
Toronto Raptors
The NBA’s lone Canadian team has a lot riding on this postseason. Toronto has been bounced out of the playoffs three years in a row by the LeBron James led Cavaliers. With LeBron finally out of the conference, the Raptors should make the NBA Finals this season. The Raptors gave up their homegrown franchise star in DeMar DeRozan (leading to tons of “is their loyalty in sports” debates) in order to get a better overall player in Kawhi Leonard. They also made a move at the deadline to acquire a past his prime Marc Gasol to help them make the finals. There is an immense amount of pressure on them to succeed this postseason. An early playoff exit could have a disastrous impact for the Raptors.
Kawhi Leonard’s upcoming free agent decision has hung over Toronto this entire season. A round two exit in the playoffs could essentially seal Kawhi Leonard’s decision to go to one of the two LA teams which were stated to be his preferred destinations while the Spurs were fielding trade offers for him. On the other hand, the same thing could’ve been said about Paul George after the Thunder lost in round one of the playoffs last year to the Jazz, but the Raptors don’t have a player like Russell Westbrook who could convince Kawhi Leonard to stay. It would be more likely that Drake tries to recruit Kawhi to stay than Kyle Lowry who has made it known he felt betrayed by the Raptors for trading his friend DeRozan. Kawhi has also bought a new house in San Diego, which might hint at something or not mean anything at all regarding his free agency plans. He could have his mind already made up and be hell-bent on LA regardless of what happens this postseason.
If he leaves for LA, the Raptors are screwed. They should then trade Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka to begin their rebuild immediately. They’ll have Pascal Siakam who could be one of their building blocks for a rebuild, but there’s no replacing a top ten player in Kawhi Leonard. That’s why it’s crucial for Toronto to succeed in the playoffs so they can prove to Kawhi that it’s in his best interest to stay north of the border long-term.
Boston Celtics
Boston’s 2018-2019 season has gone the exact opposite way that Celtics fans (like yours truly) believed it would. Instead of being the dominant east team that was going to push close to 60 wins they’ve been an up and down roller coaster who underachieves with their talent, has teammates calling each other out through the media, and has players that have regressed from last season (Rozier, Brown, Tatum). The Celtics were a couple minutes away from winning Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last year without Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward. With those two back this season was supposed to be a cake walk. Having too much talent has actually hurt the Celtics with players being unhappy about their roles. With all of that said, they can still beat any team on any given night. After losing consecutive games to the Lakers and Clippers in total collapses, they were able to bounce back and beat the 76ers on the road without Kyrie.
The big question surrounding this season for the Celtics is Kyrie Irving’s free agency. After saying at an event before the season started that he intended on re-signing with the Celtics, he has since backtracked from that statement. Even though the Celtics have had success without Kyrie, it’s beyond stupid to think losing a player as talented as him won’t matter. Losing Kyrie changes them from a finals contender to a fun playoff team with no chance of contention like Brooklyn.
The other big offseason decision for the Celtics is whether they should go all in by trading draft picks and young players such as Tatum, Brown, and Marcus Smart for Anthony Davis. Since the Pelicans decided to keep Davis at the deadline, the Celtics can now trade for Davis this offseason with Kyrie opting out of his Rose Rule contract. If Boston underperforms in the playoffs, Kyrie might be looking at the Knicks and Lakers as teams to join this offseason, but if the Celtics can land Davis, one would think that would go a long way in getting Kyrie to sign long-term. It’s been reported in the past that Kyrie and Davis have discussed playing together. Davis said during All-Star weekend that the Celtics are in fact on his list of teams he’d like to play for before saying he didn’t have a list. There’s many possibilities for the Celtics right now between having Kyrie and Davis next season, just Kyrie, or neither of them (please no to the last one).
Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers decided to go all in on this season by emptying their trade assets in two separate trades for Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris who will both be free agents this offseason. They gave up Robert Covington, Dario Saric, Landry Shamet, and two first-round picks in these two deals. One of the first-rounders they gave up was the unprotected 2021 Miami first round-pick which could be the year of the “double draft” when high school players and college players who still had to go to college because of the one and done rule will both be in the same draft. They even traded away Markelle Fultz to Orlando for a late first-round draft pick because they no longer wanted to wait for him to turn into the star he was supposed to be (if he even becomes one at all). New Sixers GM Elton Brand has been aggressive with the moves he’s made which is a complete 180 from the more patient decision making of the Sam Hinkie “process era” that resulted in Philadelphia landing two franchise cornerstones in Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons.
The 76ers must have felt they had to go all in this season which really doesn’t make sense. Embiid is only 24 and Simmons is only 22. There was no reason for them to go all in right now with their two stars being so young especially when the two players they got for their assets could simply walk in free agency after one playoff run? When you factor in that they still can’t beat the Warriors, the moves looks even dumber. The 76ers are now in a situation where even if they lose early on in the playoffs they’ll have to overpay at least one of Harris or Butler to validate giving up assets to get them. I would probably pick Harris over Butler because he won’t cost as much money to sign, won’t damage the locker room, and is a better fit. I like the aggressive mindset by Elton Brand, but I don’t like that he went all in on two players who can leave this summer and don’t even make them a favorite to get out of the second round of the playoffs.
There’s also Ben Simmons. He’ll be eligible for a max contract extension this summer. It’s common for star players on their rookie deals to receive extensions before the final year of their contract, but I’m not 100% sure Simmons will sign it. For some reason Ben Simmons doesn’t strike me as the type of player who wants to spend the bulk of his career being Embiid’s sidekick. Simmons had a documentary of his journey to the NBA, he dates a supermodel, and he now wants to learn from Magic Johnson. He clearly wants to be “the guy” on a team, and that won’t happen in Philadelphia as long as Embiid is there. If he doesn’t sign an extension with the 76ers this summer, he’ll become a restricted free agent in the summer of 2020 meaning the Sixers can match any contract he signs to keep him in Philly. Simmons could sign the qualifying offer with the 76ers (a one-year contract that will let him become an unrestricted free agent after his fifth season in the league) which will give him complete control of where he can go in the summer of 2021. However, Simmons will probably take the max contract. It’d be unprecedented for a player of his caliber to decline his first big payday. Between the free agency of Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris along with Ben Simmons’s contract situation, the 76ers are facing a critical offseason.